Prostate-specific antigen, digital rectal examination, and transrectal ultrasound in predicting the probability of cancer.

Over a 4 1/2 year period, 1,940 asymptomatic men were entered in a prostate cancer detection program consisting of digital rectal examination (DRE), prostate-specific antigen (PSA), and transrectal prostate ultrasound (TRUS). Four hundred and sixteen biopsies were performed resulting in the diagnosis of 79 cancers; 82% had clinically organ confined tumors. A recommendation for biopsy was made in 260 (62%) based on the TRUS alone, 55 (13%) by DRE alone, 92 (22%) when the DRE and TRUS were both abnormal, and in 9 (2.2%) cases when only PSA levels were elevated. The DRE, PSA, and TRUS were abnormal in 1,261 (65%), 989 (51%), and 1,552 (80%) of the patients with cancer, respectively. Prostate cancer detection increased as the serum PSA level increased above 4 ng/ml. The positive predictive value of both DRE and TRUS were significantly influenced by an elevated PSA, (P = .042 and P less than .00005, respectively). The results of this study support the idea that, although the prostate cancer detection rate is influenced by these three modalities and the detection rate of localized disease can be improved by early detection programs, its effect on mortality rates remains undefined at this time.