Home care for the disabled elderly: predictors and expected costs.

While interest in publicly funded home care for the disabled elderly is keen, basic policy issues need to be addressed before an appropriate program can be adopted and financed. This article presents findings from a study in which the cost implications of anticipated behavioral responses (for example, caregiver substitution) are estimated. Using simulation techniques, the results demonstrate that anticipated behavioral responses would likely add between $1.8 and $2.7 billion (1990 dollars) to the costs of a public home care program. Results from a variety of cost simulations are presented. The data base for the study was the 1982 National Long-Term Care Survey.