Konigsberg L W, Frankenberg S R
Department of Anthropology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville 37996.
Am J Phys Anthropol. 1992 Oct;89(2):235-56. doi: 10.1002/ajpa.1330890208.
The past decade has produced considerable debate over the feasibility of paleodemographic research, with much attention focusing on the question of reliability of age estimates. We show here that in cases where age is estimated rather than known, the traditional method of assigning individuals to age classes will produce biased estimates of age structure. We demonstrate the effect of this bias both mathematically and by computer simulation, and show how a more appropriate method from the fisheries literature (the "iterated age length key") can be used to estimate age structure. Because it is often the case that ages are also estimated for extant groups, we suggest that our results are relevant to the general field of anthropological demography, and that it is time for us to improve the statistical basis for age structure estimation. We further suggest that the oft noted paucity of older individuals in skeletal collections is a simple result of the use of inappropriate methods of age estimation, and that this problem can be rectified in the future by using maximum likelihood estimates of life table or hazard functions incorporating the uncertainty of age estimates.
在过去十年里，关于古人口统计学研究的可行性引发了大量争论，很多注意力都集中在年龄估计可靠性的问题上。我们在此表明，在年龄是估计而非已知的情况下，将个体归入年龄组的传统方法会产生有偏差的年龄结构估计。我们通过数学方法和计算机模拟展示了这种偏差的影响，并说明如何运用渔业文献中一种更合适的方法（“迭代年龄体长键”）来估计年龄结构。由于通常现存群体的年龄也是估计得出的，我们认为我们的结果与人类学人口统计学的整个领域相关，而且现在是时候改进年龄结构估计的统计基础了。我们进一步认为，骨骼收藏中常被提及的老年个体数量稀少，只是使用了不恰当年龄估计方法的简单结果，并且这个问题未来可以通过使用纳入年龄估计不确定性的生命表或风险函数的最大似然估计来纠正。
