Altman Stuart H, Tompkins Christopher P, Eilat Efrat, Glavin Mitchell P V
Schneider Institute for Health Policy, Heller School, Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts, USA.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2003 Jan-Jun;Suppl Web Exclusives:W3-1-14. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.w3.1.
This study analyzes changing trends in U.S. health spending and concludes that although the long-term growth trend has been a good predictor of future spending, periodic differences in the growth trend are important. Of particular concern is the rapid acceleration in health spending beginning in 1998. If left unchecked, the current growth rate will result in almost 24 percent of GDP spent on health by 2011. The authors question whether such unconstrained spending levels are either desirable or inevitable, and they offer a guide to how the United States might develop a long-term cost-containment strategy that is both effective and sustainable.
本研究分析了美国医疗支出的变化趋势，并得出结论：尽管长期增长趋势一直是未来支出的良好预测指标，但增长趋势的周期性差异也很重要。尤其令人担忧的是，自1998年起医疗支出迅速加速增长。如果不加以控制，当前的增长率将导致到2011年医疗支出占国内生产总值的近24%。作者质疑这种不受约束的支出水平是否可取或不可避免，并提供了一份指南，说明美国如何制定一项既有效又可持续的长期成本控制战略。
