Ke Wei-Min, Ye Yi-Nong, Huang Shi
Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Shipai, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510630, P R China.
J Gastroenterol. 2003;38(9):861-4. doi: 10.1007/s00535-003-1162-3.
We aimed to determine a discriminant function for prognosis in chronic severe hepatitis B (CSHB), by discriminant analysis of prognostic indexes and probability of death.
In 205 patients with chronic severe hepatitis B (101 patients in the survival group and 104 patients in the death group), we carried out discriminant analysis of serum total bilirubin, prothrombin activity, white blood cells, creatinine, maximum depth of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, singultus, and digestive tract hemorrhage.
The discriminant function was V=0.00043 x total bilirubin (microM) - 0.025 x prothrombin activity (%) + 0.056 x white blood cells (10(9)/l) + 0.00284 x creatinine (microM) + 0.0014 x maximum depth of ascites (mm) + 0.724 x hepatic encephalopathy score + 0.078 x singultus score + 0.457 x digestive tract hemorrhage score - 2.488. The correctness of the function for predicting death in the death group was 92.3%, and that for predicting survival in the survival group was 96.0%. When the V values were -infinity, -4.595, -2.197, -1.386, -0.405, 0.405, 1.386, 2.197, 2.944, 4.595, and infinity, a posterior probabilities of death were 0%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 90%, 95%, 99%, and 100%, respectively.
The discriminant function is an objective, convenient, and practical method to assess the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis B.
我们旨在通过对慢性重型乙型肝炎（CSHB）预后指标和死亡概率进行判别分析，确定一种用于慢性重型乙型肝炎预后的判别函数。
对205例慢性重型乙型肝炎患者（存活组101例，死亡组104例）的血清总胆红素、凝血酶原活动度、白细胞、肌酐、腹水最大深度、肝性脑病、呃逆及消化道出血情况进行判别分析。
判别函数为V = 0.00043×总胆红素（微摩尔） - 0.025×凝血酶原活动度（%） + 0.056×白细胞（10⁹/L） + 0.00284×肌酐（微摩尔） + 0.0014×腹水最大深度（毫米） + 0.724×肝性脑病评分 + 0.078×呃逆评分 + 0.457×消化道出血评分 - 2.488。该函数对死亡组死亡预测的正确率为92.3%，对存活组生存预测的正确率为96.0%。当V值为负无穷、-4.595、-2.197、-1.386、-0.405、0.405、1.386、2.197、2.944、4.595及正无穷时，死亡的后验概率分别为0%、5%、10%、20%、40%、60%、80%、90%、95%、99%及100%。
该判别函数是评估慢性重型乙型肝炎预后的一种客观、便捷且实用的方法。
