关于判断与选择的一种视角:描绘有限理性

A perspective on judgment and choice: mapping bounded rationality.

作者信息

Kahneman Daniel

机构信息

Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.

出版信息

Am Psychol. 2003 Sep;58(9):697-720. doi: 10.1037/0003-066X.58.9.697.

Abstract

Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible. Determinants and consequences of accessibility help explain the central results of prospect theory, framing effects, the heuristic process of attribute substitution, and the characteristic biases that result from the substitution of nonextensional for extensional attributes. Variations in the accessibility of rules explain the occasional corrections of intuitive judgments. The study of biases is compatible with a view of intuitive thinking and decision making as generally skilled and successful.

摘要

本文结合两个相关概念,回顾了早期与已故的阿莫斯·特沃斯基共同开展的关于直觉判断和决策的研究:一是对可得性的分析,即思想进入脑海的难易程度;二是对轻松直觉和审慎推理的区分。直觉性思维与感知一样,极易进入脑海。可得性的决定因素及后果有助于解释前景理论的核心结果、框架效应、属性替代的启发式过程,以及由非外延属性替代外延属性所导致的典型偏差。规则可得性的变化解释了直觉判断的偶尔修正。对偏差的研究与将直觉思维和决策视为普遍熟练且成功的观点是相符的。

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