Haylock Richard G E, Muirhead Colin R
National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton Didcot, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK.
Radiat Environ Biophys. 2004 Feb;42(4):257-63. doi: 10.1007/s00411-003-0213-8. Epub 2003 Nov 15.
This paper investigates some problems with the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort when fitting the mechanistic model of carcinogenesis of Moolgavkar et al. (MVK model) to nested case-control data for lung cancers. The influence of data for hard rock mining and work histories on the model fitting is examined and found to be highly influential. The question of selecting the most appropriate number of controls per case is also considered. Analyses were carried out assuming that the hard rock mining exposure occurred prior to all other work histories and that miners received no exposure between work histories. The use of less than 15 controls per case was found to seriously restrict the quality of fit of the models. The best fitting, most reliable model contained linear effects of radon exposure on the first mutation rate, the rate of differentiation, and the rate of death of the intermediate cells. An effect of smoking on the growth of the intermediate cells was also included in the model. It is concluded that owing to the complexity of the MVK model and the limited amount of information in this dataset, the reliability of the Colorado Plateau dataset for fitting this type of model, particularly in a case-control format, is questionable.
本文在将穆尔加夫卡尔等人的致癌机制模型（MVK模型）应用于肺癌巢式病例对照数据时，研究了科罗拉多高原铀矿矿工队列存在的一些问题。研究了硬岩采矿数据和工作经历对模型拟合的影响，发现其影响很大。还考虑了为每个病例选择最合适数量对照的问题。分析是在假设硬岩采矿暴露发生在所有其他工作经历之前且矿工在不同工作经历之间没有暴露的情况下进行的。发现每个病例使用少于15个对照会严重限制模型的拟合质量。拟合效果最佳、最可靠的模型包含氡暴露对第一次突变率、分化率和中间细胞死亡率的线性影响。模型中还包括了吸烟对中间细胞生长的影响。得出的结论是，由于MVK模型的复杂性以及该数据集中信息的有限性，科罗拉多高原数据集用于拟合此类模型的可靠性，尤其是在病例对照形式下，值得怀疑。
