Vernon Donald D, Cook Lawrence J, Peterson Katharine J, Michael Dean J
University of Utah, 615 Arapeen Drive, 410 Chipeta Way, Suite 222, Salt Lake City, UT 84108-1284, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2004 Mar;36(2):223-9. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(02)00151-3.
Speed limits were increased in Utah and other States after repeal of the national maximum speed limit law (NMSL) in 1995. This study analyzed effects of the increased speed limit on Utah highways on crash rates, fatality crash rates, and injury crash rates. Annual (1992-1999) rates of crashes, fatality crashes, and injury crashes for the following highway categories were calculated: urban Interstate segments (current speed limit 60-65 miles per hour (mph)); rural Interstate segments (current speed limit 70-75 mph); 55 mph rural non-Interstate highway segments; and high-speed non-Interstate highways (current speed limit 60-65 mph). Data were analyzed using autoregressive integrative moving average intervention time series analysis techniques. There were significant increases in total crash rates on urban (60-65 mph) Interstate segments (confounded by extensive ongoing highway construction on these highways), and in fatal crash rates on high-speed (60-65 mph) rural non-Interstate segments. The following variables were unaffected: total, fatality, and injury crash rates on rural Interstate segments; fatality and injury crash rates on urban Interstate segments; total and injury crash rates on high-speed non-Interstate segments. These results show an adverse effect on crash occurrence for subsets of crash types and highways, but do not show a major overall effect of NMSL repeal and increased speed limit on crash occurrence on Utah highways.
1995年全国最高限速法(NMSL)被废止后,犹他州及其他州提高了限速。本研究分析了犹他州高速公路限速提高对撞车率、致命撞车率和受伤撞车率的影响。计算了以下公路类别在1992 - 1999年期间的年度撞车率、致命撞车率和受伤撞车率:城市州际公路路段(当前限速60 - 65英里/小时(mph));农村州际公路路段(当前限速70 - 75 mph);限速55 mph的农村非州际公路路段;以及高速非州际公路(当前限速60 - 65 mph)。使用自回归积分移动平均干预时间序列分析技术对数据进行了分析。城市(60 - 65 mph)州际公路路段的总撞车率有显著增加(这些公路上正在进行的大规模公路建设对此有混淆作用),高速(60 - 65 mph)农村非州际公路路段的致命撞车率也显著增加。以下变量未受影响:农村州际公路路段的总撞车率、致命撞车率和受伤撞车率;城市州际公路路段的致命撞车率和受伤撞车率;高速非州际公路路段的总撞车率和受伤撞车率。这些结果表明,对于部分撞车类型和公路子集,撞车发生率受到了不利影响,但并未显示出NMSL废止和限速提高对犹他州高速公路撞车发生率有重大的总体影响。