Friedman Lee S, Barach Paul, Richter Elihu D
University of Illinois at Chicago, School of Public Health, Division of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Inj Prev. 2007 Jun;13(3):156-61. doi: 10.1136/ip.2006.014027.
In November 1993, the Israeli government increased the speed limit for all vehicles from 90 to 100 km per hour on a total of 115 km of its three major interurban highways. DESIGN/ SETTING: We use ARIMA time series intervention models to evaluate the effect of the raise in speed limit on fatalities, serious injuries, and case-fatality for years 1988-1999. Motor vehicle crash data came from the Central Bureau of Statistics of Israel.
Between January 1988 and December 1999, a total of 6029 persons were killed and 45 616 were seriously injured on roads in Israel. For all roads combined, the time series ARIMA model indicated that there were 4.69 more deaths per month (p<0.001), or 347 more than expected in the post-intervention period. Case-fatality rate (CFR) on all roads combined rose significantly (p<0.001). Modified case-fatality rate (CFRS) showed an increase of 2.5 deaths per 100 serious casualties (p<0.001).
The impact of raised speed limits was immediate and sustained. The largest increase in deaths occurred on interurban roads but a spillover effect was observed on urban roads as well. The increases in deaths and case-fatality rates persisted six years after the speed limit change despite major countermeasures and increasing congestion throughout the period of follow-up.
1993年11月，以色列政府将其三条主要城市间高速公路共115公里路段上所有车辆的限速从每小时90公里提高到100公里。
设计/地点：我们使用自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）时间序列干预模型来评估限速提高对1988 - 1999年期间死亡、重伤和病死率的影响。机动车碰撞数据来自以色列中央统计局。
1988年1月至1999年12月期间，以色列道路上共有6029人死亡，45616人受重伤。对于所有道路综合来看，时间序列ARIMA模型表明，干预后时期每月死亡人数增加4.69人（p<0.001），比预期多347人。所有道路综合的病死率（CFR）显著上升（p<0.001）。修正病死率（CFRS）显示每100名重伤者中死亡人数增加2.5人（p<0.001）。
提高限速的影响是即时且持续的。死亡人数增加最多的是城市间道路，但城市道路也观察到了溢出效应。尽管在后续随访期间采取了重大对策且拥堵加剧，但限速改变六年后死亡人数和病死率仍持续上升。
