Brenner Hermann, Hakulinen Timo
Department of Epidemiology, German Centre for Research on Aging, Bergheimer Strasse 20, D-69115 Heidelberg, Germany.
J Clin Oncol. 2004 Feb 1;22(3):432-8. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2004.04.067. Epub 2003 Dec 22.
Breast cancer diagnosed before the age of 50 years has become a common disease in many developed countries. Although average remaining life expectancy in the affected age groups is usually several decades, data regarding survival perspectives beyond 10 to 20 years after diagnosis are sparse. The aim of this study was to assess long-term survival in a large population-based sample of patients diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50 years.
Relative survival within up to 40 years after diagnosis was assessed for cohorts of women diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50 years and notified to the nationwide Finnish Cancer Registry within various time intervals since 1953. In addition, up-to-date estimates of 40-year relative survival were obtained by exclusively looking at the survival experience of breast cancer patients in recent years (1993 to 1999) using period analysis, a new method of survival analysis.
Prognosis of patients diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50 years has considerably improved during the past decades. According to the latest estimates from period analysis, cumulative 40-year relative survival is now approximately 43% for all cancers combined, 57% for localized cancers, and 24% for cancers with regional tumor spread. Nevertheless, patients diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50 years continue to have increased mortality throughout at least four decades after diagnosis. This applies even if breast cancer is diagnosed in a localized stage and in the absence of a second primary breast cancer.
Despite major improvement in prognosis over time, breast cancer occurring among patients who are younger than 50 years remains a chronic disease that affects prognosis for decades.
50岁前诊断出的乳腺癌在许多发达国家已成为一种常见疾病。尽管受影响年龄组的平均剩余预期寿命通常有几十年,但关于诊断后10至20年以上生存前景的数据却很少。本研究的目的是评估在一个基于人群的大样本中,50岁前被诊断为乳腺癌的患者的长期生存情况。
对1953年以来不同时间间隔内被诊断为50岁前乳腺癌并通知芬兰全国癌症登记处的女性队列,评估诊断后长达40年的相对生存率。此外,通过使用生存分析的新方法——时期分析,专门观察近年来(1993年至1999年)乳腺癌患者的生存经验,获得了40年相对生存率的最新估计值。
在过去几十年中,50岁前被诊断为乳腺癌的患者的预后有了显著改善。根据时期分析的最新估计,所有癌症综合起来的40年累积相对生存率现在约为43%,局限性癌症为57%,有区域肿瘤扩散的癌症为24%。然而,50岁前被诊断为乳腺癌的患者在诊断后的至少四十年中死亡率持续上升。即使乳腺癌在局限性阶段被诊断且不存在第二原发性乳腺癌,情况也是如此。
尽管随着时间推移预后有了重大改善,但50岁以下患者发生的乳腺癌仍然是一种慢性疾病,会影响数十年的预后。