Vose Russell S, Karl Thomas R, Easterling David R, Williams Claude N, Menne Matthew J
National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina 28801, USA.
Nature. 2004 Jan 15;427(6971):213-4; discussion 214. doi: 10.1038/427213b.
Urbanization and other changes in land use have an impact on surface-air temperatures. Kalnay and Cai report that the observed surface-temperature trend in part of the United States exceeds the trend in the NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalysis (NNR) and conclude that changes in land use account for the difference (0.035 degrees C per decade according to their corrected values). Although land-use change may explain some of this discrepancy, the authors do not quantify the impact of the many changes in observational practice that occurred during the analysis period. Our findings indicate that these 'non-climatic' changes have a systematic effect that overwhelms the reported difference in trends and therefore calls Kalnay and Cai's central conclusion into question.
城市化及其他土地利用变化会对地表气温产生影响。卡尔奈和蔡报告称,美国部分地区观测到的地表温度趋势超过了国家环境预测中心/国家大气研究中心50年再分析(NNR)的趋势,并得出结论认为土地利用变化造成了这种差异(根据他们修正后的值,每十年为0.035摄氏度)。尽管土地利用变化可能解释了这种差异的一部分,但作者并未对分析期间发生的众多观测实践变化的影响进行量化。我们的研究结果表明,这些“非气候”变化具有系统性影响,其影响超过了所报告的趋势差异,因此对卡尔奈和蔡的核心结论提出了质疑。