Heroin users in Australia: population trends.

The aim of this paper is to identify certain important population trends among heroin users in Australia for the period 1971 - 97, such as: population growth, initiation, i.e. the number who were initiated to heroin in a given year, and quitting, i.e. the number that quit using heroin. For this purpose, we summarize and extract relevant characteristics from data from National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS 1998) conducted in Australia in 1998. We devise a systematic procedure to estimate historical trends from questions concerning past events. It is observed from our findings that the size of the heroin user population in Australia is in a sharp increase, especially from the early 1980s onwards. The general trend obtained for the period 1971 - 97 is strikingly similar to that obtained by Hall et al. (2000) for the dependent heroin user population in Australia, even though their study was based on different datasets and a different methodology. In our reconstruction of the time history we also detect a levelling-off prior to 1990. Initiation is also observed to be on a sharp increase. The latter trend is accompanied by a similar trend of quitting, perhaps indicating a relatively short heroin use career. A sharp decrease in both initiation and quitting is observed after 1990. In conclusion, in the case of the trend in the population of heroin users a high rate of growth has been identified that is consistent with the existing literature. In the process, we demonstrated that even a static survey such as NDSHS 1998 can, sometimes, be used to extract historical (dynamic) trends of certain important variables.