Buccheri Gianfranco, Ferrigno Domenico
Cuneo Lung Cancer Study Group, Divisione di Pneumologia, Ospedale "A Carle," Azienda Ospedaliera "S. Croce e Carle," Cuneo I-12100, Italy.
Hematol Oncol Clin North Am. 2004 Feb;18(1):187-201. doi: 10.1016/s0889-8588(03)00137-0.
The best predictive models of today can predict no more than 50% of the natural variability of the disease, despite the sophisticated mathematic analyses and the dozens of variables assessed. Clearly, a universe of still unknown prognostic factors remains to be discovered. Analogous to infinity being immeasurable, the fate of the individual patient will never be calculated mathematically. As the discovery of new prognostic factors continues, however, the prediction of the outcome of patients becomes more reliable. Although some prognostic factors (eg, tumor neoangiogenesis and quality of life) are already supported by a large body of evidence, recent research has introduced new groups of prognostic factors (eg, molecular genetic markers and the subclinical activation of coagulation fibrinolysis). Other intriguing factors (eg, a state of mental depression) might also be recognized as important in the near future. A new small portion of the universe has been explored.
尽管进行了复杂的数学分析并评估了数十个变量,但如今最好的预测模型也只能预测出该疾病不超过50%的自然变异性。显然,仍有大量未知的预后因素有待发现。类似于无穷大难以测量一样,个体患者的命运永远无法通过数学计算得出。然而,随着新的预后因素不断被发现,对患者预后的预测变得更加可靠。尽管一些预后因素(如肿瘤新生血管形成和生活质量)已经有大量证据支持,但最近的研究又引入了新的预后因素类别(如分子遗传标记和凝血纤溶的亚临床激活)。其他有趣的因素(如精神抑郁状态)在不久的将来也可能被认为很重要。一个新的小领域已被探索。