Karelitz Tzur M, Budescu David V
Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana-Champaign, IL, USA.
J Exp Psychol Appl. 2004 Mar;10(1):25-41. doi: 10.1037/1076-898X.10.1.25.
When forecasters and decision makers describe uncertain events using verbal probability terms, there is a risk of miscommunication because people use different probability phrases and interpret them in different ways. In an effort to facilitate the communication process, the authors investigated various ways of converting the forecasters' verbal probabilities to the decision maker's terms. The authors present 3 studies in which participants judged the probabilities of distinct events using both numerical and verbal probabilities. They define several indexes of interindividual coassignment of phrases to the same events and evaluate the conversion methods by comparing the values of these indexes for the converted and the unconverted judgments. In all the cases studied, the conversion methods significantly reduced the error rates in communicating uncertainties.
当预测者和决策者使用文字概率术语描述不确定事件时，存在沟通不畅的风险，因为人们使用不同的概率短语并以不同方式对其进行解释。为了促进沟通，作者研究了将预测者的文字概率转换为决策者术语的各种方法。作者呈现了3项研究，其中参与者使用数字概率和文字概率来判断不同事件的概率。他们定义了几个关于将短语共同分配给同一事件的个体间指标，并通过比较转换和未转换判断的这些指标值来评估转换方法。在所研究的所有案例中，转换方法显著降低了传达不确定性时的错误率。
