Scott Christy K
Lighthouse Institute, Chestnut Health Systems, 712 N. Wells, Suite 300, Chicago, IL 60610, USA.
Drug Alcohol Depend. 2004 Apr 9;74(1):21-36. doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2003.11.007.
The goals of this paper were to: (a) discuss the interface between dominant behavioral patterns of substance users and the development of a follow-up management model, (b) describe the components of the model, (c) present data regarding its effectiveness, (d) estimate the number of contacts for various follow-up rates, (e) explore the generalizability of the model across sub samples, and (f) present client outcome data that underscore the potential negative impact of low follow-up rates. The model has been used to follow-up over 12,000 research participants yielding over a 95% follow-up rate across seven studies (with over 90% completed within +/-14 days of their anniversary date). Using data from two of these studies (n = 2010, n = 632), 22 contacts or less captured 70% of the participants while 33 or 38 contacts or less captured 90% in the first and second studies, respectively. When outcome variables were compared based on 70% versus 90% follow-up, the results varied by study and within study. An examination of the effect of attrition on validity in these two samples demonstrated that even the traditionally acceptable 30% level of attrition can result in significant bias and that the nature of the bias is unpredictable.
（a）讨论物质使用者的主导行为模式与后续管理模型开发之间的接口；（b）描述该模型的组成部分；（c）展示有关其有效性的数据；（d）估计不同随访率所需的联系次数；（e）探讨该模型在子样本中的可推广性；（f）展示客户结果数据，强调低随访率可能产生的负面影响。该模型已用于对超过12,000名研究参与者进行随访，在七项研究中随访率超过95%（超过90%在其周年日期的正负14天内完成）。使用其中两项研究的数据（n = 2010，n = 632），在第一项研究中，22次或更少的联系涵盖了70%的参与者，在第二项研究中，33次或38次或更少的联系分别涵盖了90%的参与者。当根据70%和90%的随访率比较结果变量时，结果因研究和研究内部而异。对这两个样本中损耗对有效性的影响进行检查表明，即使是传统上可接受的30%的损耗水平也可能导致显著偏差，而且偏差的性质是不可预测的。
