Modeling and simulation of point-non-point source effluent trading in Taihu Lake area: perspective of non-point sources control in China.

The past decades have witnessed some efforts in point source water pollution controls in China. However, adequate abatement efforts have not been implemented on non-point source control, and non-point source contributions remain and have increased as a share of surface water degradation. It has been noted that conventional command-and-control regulations are ineffective for agricultural non-point source pollution, and watershed abatement trading between point and non-point sources may serve as a cost-effective way to deal with it. In this paper, the feasibility of point-non-point sources effluent trading in China and cost-effectiveness of the trading system on water pollution control are evaluated using a stochastic programming model and a combined probabilistic watershed simulation of a representative agricultural watershed in the Taihu Lake area. The method and model can be used to assess economic and environmental opportunities of trading in similar watersheds in China. The use of explicit emission target and reliability decision rules in the chance-constrained programming model is a practical simplification to convert a stochastic program into a solvable deterministic problem. Based on the simulation, suggestions on development and implementation of point-non-point sources abatement trading scheme in China were discussed.