Chen Yong-Shing, Sheen Pai-Ching, Chen Eng-Rin, Liu Yi-Kuen, Wu Trong-Neng, Yang Chun-Yuh
Institute of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
Environ Res. 2004 Jun;95(2):151-5. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2003.08.008.
In spring, windblown dust storms originating in the deserts of Mongolia and China make their way to Taipei City. These occurrences are known as Asian dust storm events. The objective of this study was to assess the possible effects of Asian dust storms on the mortality of residents in Taipei, Taiwan, during the period from 1995 to 2000. We identified 39 dust storm episodes, which were classified as index days. Daily deaths on the index days were compared with deaths on the comparison days. We selected two comparison days for each index day, 7 days before the index day and 7 days after the index day. The strongest estimated effects of dust storms were increases of 7.66% in risk for respiratory disease 1 day after the event, 4.92% for total deaths 2 days following the dust storms and 2.59% for circulatory diseases 2 days following the dust storms. However, none of these effects were statistically significant. This study found greater specificity for associations with respiratory deaths, and this increases the likelihood that the association between dust events and daily mortality represents a causal relationship.
春季,源自蒙古和中国沙漠地区的沙尘暴会一路吹到台北市。这些现象被称为亚洲沙尘暴事件。本研究的目的是评估1995年至2000年期间亚洲沙尘暴对台湾台北市居民死亡率可能产生的影响。我们确定了39次沙尘暴事件,并将其归类为指标日。将指标日的每日死亡人数与对照日的死亡人数进行比较。我们为每个指标日选择了两个对照日,指标日前7天和指标日后7天。沙尘暴的最强估计影响为事件发生后1天呼吸系统疾病风险增加7.66%,沙尘暴后2天总死亡人数增加4.92%,沙尘暴后2天循环系统疾病增加2.59%。然而,这些影响均无统计学意义。本研究发现与呼吸道死亡的关联具有更高的特异性,这增加了沙尘事件与每日死亡率之间的关联代表因果关系的可能性。