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开发一种模拟模型,以评估接种胎儿三毛滴虫疫苗对肉牛群繁殖效率的影响。

Development of a simulation model to evaluate the effect of vaccination against Tritrichomonas foetus on reproductive efficiency in beef herds.

作者信息

Villarroel Aurora, Carpenter Tim E, BonDurant Robert H

机构信息

Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.

出版信息

Am J Vet Res. 2004 Jun;65(6):770-5. doi: 10.2460/ajvr.2004.65.770.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To develop a model to evaluate the effect of vaccination against Tritrichomonas foetus on reproductive efficiency in beef herds.

SAMPLE POPULATION

A beef herd of 300 cows and 12 bulls (8 bulls < or = 3 years old and 4 bulls > 3 years old).

PROCEDURE

The model was developed by use of data for various risk factors and vaccine efficacy. The reference herd was considered to be one in which T. foetus had been diagnosed and bulls were tested for T. foetus before the breeding season. Five thousand iterations were run for each of 13 simulations, with each simulation representing a separate combination of risk factors.

RESULTS

In all simulations, vaccination resulted in significantly higher calving incidence than nonvaccination. Shared grazing was found to be the most significant risk factor for a decrease in calving incidence attributable to T. foetus infection, followed in importance by lack of testing before the breeding season and a higher proportion of old bulls. Combinations of risk factors contributed to a loss of income of up to 22%, some of which could be blunted by vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Highest calving incidence is achieved when all bulls are tested for T. foetus before the breeding season and all bulls with positive culture results are culled. Avoiding all risk factors is better than vaccinating, but when this is not feasible for a given herd, the results of this simulation indicate that proper vaccination can decrease economic losses attributable to abortions caused by T. foetus.

摘要

目的

建立一个模型,以评估接种胎儿三毛滴虫疫苗对肉牛群繁殖效率的影响。

样本群体

一个由300头母牛和12头公牛组成的肉牛群(8头公牛年龄≤3岁,4头公牛年龄>3岁)。

方法

利用各种风险因素和疫苗效力的数据建立该模型。参考群体被认为是已诊断出胎儿三毛滴虫且在繁殖季节前对公牛进行了胎儿三毛滴虫检测的群体。对13种模拟情况中的每一种都进行了5000次迭代,每次模拟代表风险因素的一种单独组合。

结果

在所有模拟中,接种疫苗后的产犊率显著高于未接种疫苗的情况。发现共同放牧是因胎儿三毛滴虫感染导致产犊率下降的最显著风险因素,其次重要的因素是繁殖季节前未进行检测以及老龄公牛比例较高。风险因素的组合导致收入损失高达22%,其中一些损失可通过接种疫苗得到缓解。

结论及临床意义

当在繁殖季节前对所有公牛进行胎儿三毛滴虫检测并淘汰所有培养结果呈阳性的公牛时,可实现最高产犊率。避免所有风险因素比接种疫苗更好,但对于特定牛群若无法做到这一点,本模拟结果表明适当接种疫苗可减少因胎儿三毛滴虫引起的流产造成的经济损失。

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