Application of Bayes theorem to aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity: comparison of extended-interval dosing, individualized pharmacokinetic monitoring, and multiple-daily dosing.

The objective of this study was to examine the incidence of aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity related to extended-interval dosing, individualized pharmacokinetic monitoring, and multiple-daily dosing by applying Bayes theorem. An electronic literature search of MEDLINE (1966-2003) and a manual search of references from published meta-analyses and review articles were performed. Studies using extended-interval dosing, individualized pharmacokinetic monitoring, or multiple-daily dosing and reported aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity for patients > or = 16 years of age were included. Quality scores were assigned based on the rigor of definition of aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity, duration of therapy, and length of follow-up of renal function after completion of therapy. Inclusion criteria were then based on these quality scores. Quantitative data on the incidence of aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity were abstracted. Twelve extended-interval dosing studies (n = 916), 10 individualized pharmacokinetic monitoring studies (n = 2066), and 27 multiple-daily dosing studies (n = 4251) met the inclusion criteria. Prior probabilities of aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity were derived from a combination of a review of published studies and expert judgment. The maximum densities for the final posterior probabilities of aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity for extended-interval dosing, individualized pharmacokinetic monitoring, and multiple-daily dosing were located at 12% to 13%, 10% to 11%, and 13% to 14%, respectively. Application of Bayes theorem demonstrates that aminoglycoside dosing by individualized pharmacokinetic monitoring results in less aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity than extended-interval dosing or multiple-daily dosing.