Gavrilova Natalia S, Gavrilov Leonid A, Semyonova Victoria G, Evdokushkina Galina N
Center on Aging, NORC and the University of Chicago, 1155 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637-2745, USA.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2004 Jun;1019:513-7. doi: 10.1196/annals.1297.095.
The purpose of this study is to test the prediction of the evolutionary theory of aging that human longevity comes with the cost of impaired reproductive success (higher infertility rates). Our validation study is based on the analysis of particularly reliable genealogical records for European aristocratic families using a logistic regression model with childlessness as a dependent (outcome) variable, and woman's life span, year of birth, age at marriage, husband's age at marriage, and husband's life span as independent (predictor) variables. We found that the woman's exceptional longevity did not increase her chances of being infertile. It appears that the previous reports by other authors of high infertility among long-lived women (up to 50% infertility) are related to incomplete data, that is, births of children not reported. Thus, the concept of the high cost of infertility for human longevity is not supported by the data when these data are carefully cross-checked, cleaned, and reanalyzed.
本研究的目的是检验衰老进化理论的预测,即人类长寿伴随着生殖成功率受损(更高的不孕率)的代价。我们的验证研究基于对欧洲贵族家庭特别可靠的家谱记录进行分析,使用以无子女为因变量(结果变量),以女性寿命、出生年份、结婚年龄、丈夫结婚年龄和丈夫寿命为自变量(预测变量)的逻辑回归模型。我们发现,女性的超长寿命并没有增加其不孕的几率。其他作者之前关于长寿女性中高不孕率(高达50%不孕)的报告似乎与不完整的数据有关,即未报告的子女出生情况。因此,当对这些数据进行仔细的交叉核对、清理和重新分析时,数据并不支持不孕对人类长寿造成高昂代价这一概念。