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我们能否从调查数据中识别出与放牧管理奶牛养殖系统相关的关键特征?

Can we identify key characteristics associated with grazing-management dairy systems from survey data?

作者信息

Parsons R L, Luloff A E, Hanson G D

机构信息

Department of Community Development and Applied Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington 05405, USA.

出版信息

J Dairy Sci. 2004 Aug;87(8):2748-60. doi: 10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(04)73402-5.

Abstract

Discriminant analysis was used to identify farms using confinement and grazing-production systems from mail survey data of 2074 dairy farmers in Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia, and North Carolina. Survey respondents included 45.1% of the farms using confinement management; 13.5% of farms practicing intensive grazing, defined as moving cows to new pasture at least every 3 d; and 41.4% of farms using nonintensive grazing. Farmers using confinement management had significantly more cows, higher milk production, more crop acreage, higher debt, used automatic takeoff milking units (ATO), fed total mixed rations (TMR), and were more satisfied. In general, dairy farmers who grazed their milking cows had smaller herds, fewer acres, but had more acres per cow and made less use of technology. However, farmers practicing intensive grazing were significantly younger, more educated, less experienced, more likely to use computers, and farmed less acreage than other graziers or farmers on confinement farms. The discriminant function correctly classified 70% of the total sample when divided into confinement and overall grazing categories. However, the discriminant function correctly classified only 36% of intensive-grazing farms in comparison to confinement farms. Significant variables identified using ordinary least squares as being related to confinement management were milk per cow, acres of corn, use of ATO and TMR, debt greater than 40%, and residence in North Carolina. Significant variables associated with grazing management were acres of pasture, future use of pasture, education, and residence in Vermont. The analysis indicated that the discriminant function could correctly classify confinement and nonintensive-grazing management but was unable to reliably differentiate between confinement and intensive-grazing farms.

摘要

利用判别分析,根据宾夕法尼亚州、佛蒙特州、弗吉尼亚州和北卡罗来纳州2074名奶农的邮件调查数据,识别采用圈养和放牧生产系统的农场。参与调查的受访者包括45.1%采用圈养管理的农场;13.5%采用集约放牧的农场,集约放牧定义为至少每3天将奶牛转移到新牧场;以及41.4%采用非集约放牧的农场。采用圈养管理的奶农拥有更多的奶牛、更高的牛奶产量、更多的作物种植面积、更高的债务,使用自动脱杯挤奶设备(ATO),投喂全混合日粮(TMR),并且满意度更高。总体而言,放牧奶牛的奶农拥有较小的牛群、较少的种植面积,但每头奶牛的种植面积更多,技术使用较少。然而,与其他放牧或圈养农场的奶农相比,采用集约放牧的奶农明显更年轻、受教育程度更高、经验更少、更有可能使用计算机,且耕种面积更少。当分为圈养和总体放牧类别时,判别函数正确分类了总样本的70%。然而,与圈养农场相比,判别函数仅正确分类了36%的集约放牧农场。使用普通最小二乘法确定的与圈养管理相关的显著变量包括每头奶牛的产奶量、玉米种植面积、ATO和TMR的使用、债务超过40%以及居住在北卡罗来纳州。与放牧管理相关的显著变量包括牧场面积、牧场的未来使用情况、教育程度以及居住在佛蒙特州。分析表明,判别函数可以正确分类圈养和非集约放牧管理,但无法可靠地区分圈养和集约放牧农场。

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