An improved method for predicting which heavy drinkers become intoxicated.

Not all heavy drinkers become intoxicated. We sought to improve predictability of intoxication of heavy drinkers. Based on criteria for heavy drinking in the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA), we identified characteristics related to heavy drinking. We then created a dichotomous heavy drinker typology variable (yes/no) and determined how well we were able to identify drinkers who became intoxicated at least twice a month. Of those who fit this heavy drinking profile, 54% drank regularly to the point of intoxication, the same percent as those who become intoxicated in the self-reported heavy drinking group. However, 77% of those who fit both the profile and were self-described heavy drinkers, drank regularly to intoxication. We concluded that a demographic typology combined with self-reported drinking improves predictability of intoxication in heavy drinkers, and is a promising direction for research.