Predicting the recurrence/metastasis of stage I and II breast cancer without lymph node metastasis.

Prediction of the recurrence of primary breast cancer was attempted by detection of occult neoplastic cells (ONCs) in lymph nodes or by using the high-risk criteria for recurrence/metastasis of gastric and colorectal cancer. The subjects were 70 patients with stage I or II node-negative primary breast cancer. Prediction of recurrence using ONCs had a sensitivity of 60.0% (3/5) and a false-negative rate of 40.0% (2/5) in the recurrence group, while the specificity was 96.9% (63/65) and the false-positive rate was 3.1% (2/65) in the non-recurrence group. The accuracy of ONCs was 78.5%. Prediction of recurrence based on positivity for at least 2 of the high-risk criteria showed a sensitivity of 60.0% (3/5) and a false-negative rate of 40.0% (2/5) in the recurrence group, while the specificity was 95.4% (62/65) and the false-positive rate was 4.6% (3/65) in the non-recurrence group. The accuracy of the high-risk criteria was 77.7%. These results suggest that ONCs show the same accuracy as the high-risk criteria for predicting recurrence/metastasis of stage I and II node-negative breast cancer with a high specificity.