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一种用于河流模型中的、针对连续和单脉冲沉降在大流域中放射性核素固定的新通用子模型。

A new generic sub-model for radionuclide fixation in large catchments from continuous and single-pulse fallouts, as used in a river model.

作者信息

Håkanson Lars

机构信息

Department of Earth Sciences,Uppsala University, Villav. 16, 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden.

出版信息

J Environ Radioact. 2004;77(3):247-73. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2004.03.010.

Abstract

This paper presents a new general sub-model for fixation in catchment areas to be used within the framework of a river model for substances such as radionuclides and metals from continuous and single-pulse fallouts. The model has been critically tested using data from 27 European river sites covering a very wide geographical area and contaminated by radiocesium and radiostrontium from the Chernobyl accident and from the nuclear weapons tests (NWT fallout). This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases) at defined sites on a monthly basis. The overall river model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow (approximately dry land) areas and outflow (approximately wetland) areas. The model has a general structure, which can be used for all radionuclides or substances. It is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation and fallout. Note that for large catchments, this model does not require data on the characteristic soil type or the percentage of outflow areas (wet lands) in the catchment, as in most previous models, since in practice it is very difficult to obtain reliable data on characteristic soil type or percentage of outflow areas, especially in large and topographically complex catchments. Modelled values have been compared to empirical data from rivers sites covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 3000 to 3,000,000 km2, precipitation from 400 to 1700 mm/year; fallouts from 1600 to 280,000 Bq/m2; altitudes from 0 to 1000 m.a.s.l. and latitudes from 41 degrees to 72 degrees N). The river model with its sub-model for fixation predicts close to the uncertainty factors given by the empirical data, which have been shown to be about a factor of 1.6 for 137Cs and a factor of 2.2 for 90Sr in river water. The obtained characteristic uncertainty factors for 137Cs from the Chernobyl fallout is 2.4, for 137Cs from the NWT fallout it is 1.3 and for the 90Sr results from the NWT fallout it is 3 using the new model.

摘要

本文提出了一种新的集水区固定通用子模型,用于在河流模型框架内模拟放射性核素和金属等物质,这些物质来自连续和单脉冲沉降。该模型已使用来自27个欧洲河流站点的数据进行了严格测试,这些站点覆盖了非常广泛的地理区域,受到切尔诺贝利事故和核武器试验(核试验沉降)产生的放射性铯和放射性锶的污染。这种建模方法每月给出特定站点水中(总相、溶解相和颗粒相)的放射性核素浓度。整个河流模型基于上游河段和集水区的过程。集水区分为流入区(大致为旱地)和流出区(大致为湿地)。该模型具有通用结构,可用于所有放射性核素或物质。在实践中易于应用,因为所有驱动变量都可以从地图和标准监测程序中轻松获取。驱动变量包括:纬度、海拔、集水区面积、年均降水量和沉降量。请注意,对于大型集水区,该模型不需要像大多数以前的模型那样获取特征土壤类型或集水区流出区(湿地)百分比的数据,因为在实践中很难获得关于特征土壤类型或流出区百分比的可靠数据,特别是在大型和地形复杂的集水区。已将模拟值与来自广泛区域的河流站点的经验数据进行了比较(集水区面积从3000至3000000平方公里,降水量从400至1700毫米/年;沉降量从1600至280000贝克勒尔/平方米;海拔从0至1000米平均海平面,纬度从北纬41度至72度)。带有固定子模型的河流模型预测值接近经验数据给出的不确定因子,对于河水中的137Cs,经验数据显示不确定因子约为1.6,对于90Sr约为2.2。使用新模型,切尔诺贝利沉降产生的137Cs的特征不确定因子为2.4,核试验沉降产生的137Cs为1.3,核试验沉降产生的90Sr为3。

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