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生育对死亡率的长期影响:来自工业化前瑞典的证据。

Long-term effects of childbearing on mortality: evidence from pre-industrial Sweden.

作者信息

Dribe Martin

机构信息

Department of Economic History, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.

出版信息

Popul Stud (Camb). 2004;58(3):297-310. doi: 10.1080/0032472042000272357.

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the impact of childbearing history on later-life mortality for ever-married men and women using historical micro-level data of high quality for southern Sweden. The analysis uses a Cox proportional hazards model, estimating the effects on old-age mortality of number of births and timing of first and last births. By studying the effects of previous childbearing on mortality by sex and social status, we also gain important insights into the mechanisms relating childbearing to mortality in old age. The results show that number of children ever born had a statistically significant negative impact on longevity after age 50 for females but not for males. Analysis by social group shows that only landless women experienced higher mortality from having more children, which seems to indicate that the main explanations are to be found in social or economic conditions specific to females, rather than in the strictly biological or physiological effects of childbearing.

摘要

本文利用瑞典南部高质量的历史微观层面数据,分析了生育史对已婚男性和女性晚年死亡率的影响。该分析使用了Cox比例风险模型,估计生育数量以及首次和末次生育时间对老年死亡率的影响。通过研究以往生育对不同性别和社会地位人群死亡率的影响,我们还对生育与老年死亡率之间的关联机制有了重要的认识。结果表明,对于女性而言,曾生育子女的数量对50岁以后的寿命有统计学显著的负面影响,而对男性则没有。按社会群体进行的分析表明,只有无土地的女性生育更多子女时死亡率更高,这似乎表明主要原因在于女性特有的社会或经济状况,而非生育的严格生物学或生理学影响。

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