Jones Laura E, Ellner Stephen P
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
Bull Math Biol. 2004 Nov;66(6):1547-73. doi: 10.1016/j.bulm.2004.02.006.
Due to the conventional distinction between ecological (rapid) and evolutionary (slow) timescales, ecological and population models have typically ignored the effects of evolution. Yet the potential for rapid evolutionary change has been recently established and may be critical to understanding how populations persist in changing environments. In this paper we examine the relationship between ecological and evolutionary dynamics, focusing on a well-studied experimental aquatic predator-prey system (Fussmann et al., 2000, Science, 290, 1358-1360; Shertzer et al., 2002, J. Anim. Ecol., 71, 802-815; Yoshida et al., 2003, Nature, 424, 303-306). Major properties of predator-prey cycles in this system are determined by ongoing evolutionary dynamics in the prey population. Under some conditions, however, the populations tend to apparently stable steady-state densities. These are the subject of the present paper. We examine a previously developed model for the system, to determine how evolution shapes properties of the equilibria, in particular the number and identity of coexisting prey genotypes. We then apply these results to explore how evolutionary dynamics can shape the responses of the system to 'management': externally imposed alterations in conditions. Specifically, we compare the behavior of the system including evolutionary dynamics, with predictions that would be made if the potential for rapid evolutionary change is neglected. Finally, we posit some simple experiments to verify our prediction that evolution can have significant qualitative effects on observed population-level responses to changing conditions.
由于生态（快速）和进化（缓慢）时间尺度之间的传统区分，生态模型和种群模型通常忽略了进化的影响。然而，快速进化变化的可能性最近已得到证实，这对于理解种群如何在不断变化的环境中持续存在可能至关重要。在本文中，我们研究了生态动力学与进化动力学之间的关系，重点关注一个经过充分研究的实验性水生捕食者 - 猎物系统（Fussmann等人，2000年，《科学》，第290卷，第1358 - 1360页；Shertzer等人，2002年，《动物生态学杂志》，第71卷，第802 - 815页；Yoshida等人，2003年，《自然》，第424卷，第303 - 306页）。该系统中捕食者 - 猎物周期的主要特性由猎物种群中持续的进化动力学决定。然而，在某些条件下，种群倾向于呈现出明显稳定的稳态密度。这就是本文的主题。我们研究了一个先前为该系统开发的模型，以确定进化如何塑造平衡点的特性，特别是共存猎物基因型的数量和身份。然后，我们应用这些结果来探索进化动力学如何塑造系统对“管理”的响应：外部施加的条件改变。具体而言，我们将包括进化动力学的系统行为与忽略快速进化变化可能性时所做的预测进行比较。最后，我们提出一些简单的实验来验证我们的预测，即进化可以对观察到的种群水平对变化条件的响应产生重大的定性影响。
