Test of CAP88-PC's predicted concentrations of tritium in air at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Based on annual tritium release rates from the five sources of tritium at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Tritium Research Laboratory at Sandia National Laboratory, the regulatory dispersion and dose model, CAP88-PC, was used to predict tritium concentrations in air at perimeter and offsite air surveillance monitoring locations for 1986 through 2001. These predictions were compared with mean annual measured concentrations, based on biweekly sampling. Deterministic predictions were compared with deterministic observations using predicted-to-observed ratios. In addition, the uncertainty on observations and predictions was assessed: when the uncertainty bounds of the observations overlapped with the uncertainty bounds of the predictions, the predictions were assumed to agree with the observations with high probability. Deterministically, 54% of all predictions were higher than the observations, and 96% fell within a factor of three. Accounting for uncertainty, 75% of all predictions agreed with the observations; 87% of the predictions either matched or exceeded the observations. Predictions equaled or exceeded observations at those sampling locations towards which the wind blows most frequently, except those in the hills. Under-predictions were seen at locations towards which the wind blows infrequently when released tritium was from elevated sources. When a high fraction of tritium was from area (diffuse) sources, predictions matched observations.