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死亡率预测因素:来自六项老龄化纵向研究的社会人口学和健康特征的国际比较:CLESA项目

Predictors of mortality: an international comparison of socio-demographic and health characteristics from six longitudinal studies on aging: the CLESA project.

作者信息

Noale Marianna, Minicuci Nadia, Bardage Carola, Gindin Jacob, Nikula Suvi, Pluijm Saskia, Rodríguez-Laso Angel, Maggi Stefania

机构信息

National Research Council, Institute of Neuroscience, Aging Unit, Padova, Italy.

出版信息

Exp Gerontol. 2005 Jan-Feb;40(1-2):89-99. doi: 10.1016/j.exger.2004.09.003.

DOI:10.1016/j.exger.2004.09.003
PMID:15732192
Abstract

PURPOSE

Multiple factors contribute to mortality in the elderly, but the extent to which traditional factors contribute independently to mortality in different countries is not known. Our objective is to determine the differential impact of socio-demographic variables, selected diseases, health habits and disability on all-cause mortality, among older people living in five European countries and Israel.

METHODS

From six longitudinal studies on aging (TamELSA-Tampere (Finland), CALAS-Israel, ILSA-Italy, LASA-Netherlands, AL-Leganés (Spain), SATSA-Sweden), a harmonized common database was created in the context of the CLESA Project (Cross-national determinants of quality of life and health services for the elderly). A common five-year follow-up was used.

RESULTS

The highest mortality rate was found in Tampere among females (98.7%) and in Israel among males (108.3%), whereas the lowest was observed in Leganés for males (72.3%) and in The Netherlands for females (44.6%). In multivariate models, some predictors were homogeneously, significantly distributed across the six countries, including older age (HR = 1.57) and male sex (HR = 1.60) among the socio-demographic variables; smoking status (HR = 1.15) and alcohol consumption (HR = 0.81) among the health habits variables; presence of heart disease (HR = 1.34), diabetes (HR = 1.46), cancer (HR = 1.93), respiratory disease (HR = 1.19), and disability (HR = 2.92) among the health status variables. Marital status, education, and drug use did not have homogeneous effects in the six countries.

DISCUSSION

This large international study shows that multiple factors contribute to increased risk of all cause mortality among older people and that most risk factors are similar across countries. Disability, age greater than 80 years, cancer and male sex were identified as the strongest common risk factors of mortality.

摘要

目的

多种因素导致老年人死亡,但在不同国家,传统因素对死亡率的独立影响程度尚不清楚。我们的目标是确定社会人口统计学变量、特定疾病、健康习惯和残疾对居住在五个欧洲国家和以色列的老年人全因死亡率的差异影响。

方法

在CLESA项目(老年人生活质量和健康服务的跨国决定因素)的背景下,从六项关于衰老的纵向研究(芬兰坦佩雷的TamELSA、以色列的CALAS、意大利的ILSA、荷兰的LASA、西班牙莱加内斯的AL、瑞典的SATSA)中创建了一个统一的通用数据库。采用了共同的五年随访。

结果

女性中死亡率最高的是坦佩雷(98.7%),男性中是以色列(108.3%),而男性中最低的是莱加内斯(72.3%),女性中是荷兰(44.6%)。在多变量模型中,一些预测因素在六个国家中分布均匀且具有显著差异,包括社会人口统计学变量中的高龄(风险比=1.57)和男性(风险比=1.60);健康习惯变量中的吸烟状况(风险比=1.15)和饮酒情况(风险比=0.81);健康状况变量中的心脏病(风险比=1.34)、糖尿病(风险比=1.46)、癌症(风险比=1.93)、呼吸系统疾病(风险比=1.19)和残疾(风险比=2.92)。婚姻状况、教育程度和药物使用在六个国家中没有均匀的影响。

讨论

这项大型国际研究表明,多种因素导致老年人全因死亡风险增加,且大多数风险因素在各国相似。残疾、年龄大于80岁、癌症和男性被确定为最强的共同死亡风险因素。

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