Bolton P, Pickles A, Harrington R, Macdonald H, Rutter M
M.R.C. Child Psychiatry Unit, Institute of Psychiatry, London, U.K.
J Child Psychol Psychiatry. 1992 Mar;33(3):509-30. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-7610.1992.tb00888.x.
Rates of birth in the general population show seasonal fluctuations for reasons that are ill understood. Variations from these general population patterns have been reported for several psychiatric conditions and used as the basis for aetiological hypotheses. In this paper, the evidence for alterations in the expected seasonal fluctuation in birth dates of autistic people is evaluated. A national sample of 1435 autistic individuals and a clinic sample of 196 subjects are compared to general population figures and to 121 sibling controls. Compared with the general population, the national sample showed significant deviations from the expected rate of birth by month. In the clinic sample, differences from the anticipated monthly pattern were only evident when this sample was compared to the sibling controls. A variety of models for seasonal trends, including year quarters, temperature and sine wave forms, were fitted to these variations but no consistent picture emerged.
一般人群的出生率呈现季节性波动,但其原因尚不清楚。已有报告称,几种精神疾病的出生率偏离了一般人群模式,并被用作病因假说的依据。本文评估了自闭症患者出生日期预期季节性波动变化的证据。将1435名自闭症患者的全国样本和196名受试者的临床样本与一般人群数据以及121名同胞对照进行了比较。与一般人群相比,全国样本显示出每月预期出生率的显著偏差。在临床样本中,只有将该样本与同胞对照进行比较时,与预期月度模式的差异才明显。针对这些变化拟合了各种季节性趋势模型,包括年份季度、温度和正弦波形式,但没有出现一致的情况。