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[天花——历史威胁还是现实威胁]

[Smallpox--historical or real threat].

作者信息

Zieliński Andrzej, Stefanoff Paweł

机构信息

Zakład Epidemiologii Państwowego Zakładu Higieny.

出版信息

Przegl Epidemiol. 2004;58 Suppl 1:22-7.

Abstract

Presently, there is no real possibility of natural re-emergence of smallpox virus, which was eradicated globally more then 25 years ago. During the last decade the possibility of use of smallpox virus as a biological weapon by a criminal organisation was emphasised. The re-emergence of smallpox virus would lead to unprecedented disaster. Theoretical models indicated that only extremely strict and enforced interventions could stop the spread of epidemic, but the assumptions of these models were unrealistic. Presently, there are limited stocks of the first generation smallpox vaccine left in the world. This vaccine, as well as the second-generation vaccine are associated with multiple adverse events, including fatalities and may not be accepted by society. Much safer vaccines are now being developed. Strategic plan of prophylactic vaccinations requires defining the groups to be immunised in the first place and whether immunisation should start before or after a first smallpox case would occur.

摘要

目前,天花病毒已在全球范围内被根除超过25年,其自然再次出现已无实际可能。在过去十年中,犯罪组织将天花病毒用作生物武器的可能性受到了关注。天花病毒的再次出现将导致前所未有的灾难。理论模型表明,只有极其严格且强制实施的干预措施才能阻止疫情蔓延,但这些模型的假设并不现实。目前,世界上第一代天花疫苗的库存有限。这种疫苗以及第二代疫苗都伴有多种不良事件,包括死亡,可能不会被社会所接受。现在正在研发更安全的疫苗。预防性疫苗接种的战略计划需要首先确定应接种疫苗的人群,以及免疫接种应在首例天花病例出现之前还是之后开始。

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