Chen J S, March L M, Schwarz J, Zochling J, Makaroff J, Sitoh Y Y, Lau T C, Lord S R, Cameron I D, Cumming R G, Sambrook P N
Institute of Bone & Joint Research, Department of Medicine, Level 4, Block 4, Royal North Shore Hospital, University of Sydney, St Leonards, NSW 2065, Australia.
J Clin Epidemiol. 2005 May;58(5):503-8. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.08.018.
To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population.
We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents.
During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score > or =7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (> or =7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (<3) indicated approximately a 1 in 7 chance of falling within 6 months.
The assessment tool and falls risk score could identify individuals in this frail elderly population at high risk of falls.
评估能否在体弱老年人群体中预测个体跌倒风险。
在一项针对中级护理机构居民的前瞻性队列研究中，我们基于多变量回归模型开发并测试了一种用于预测跌倒的评估工具和跌倒风险评分。
在随访期间，记录到1107名受试者发生了1736次跌倒，平均每100人年有170次跌倒。50%的研究人群在一年内至少发生过一次跌倒。显著的独立危险因素包括平衡能力差、认知障碍、失禁、疾病严重程度评分较高以及年龄较大。跌倒风险评分≥7的参与者占跌倒总数的42%，其跌倒发生率为每100人年317次。该发生率是评分<3的参与者每100人年52次跌倒发生率的六倍。高分（≥7）表明跌倒几率几乎为三分之二，而低分（<3）表明在6个月内跌倒几率约为七分之一。
该评估工具和跌倒风险评分能够识别出体弱老年人群体中跌倒风险较高的个体。
