Singer R B, Schmidt C J
J Insur Med. 2000;32(3):137-54.
the mortality experience for structured settlement (SS) annuitants issued both standard (Std) and substandard (SStd) has been reported twice previously by the Society of Actuaries (SOA), but the 1995 mortality described here has not previously been published. We describe in detail the 1995 SS mortality, and we also discuss the methodology of calculating life expectancy (e), contrasting three different life-table models.
With SOA permission, we present in four tables the unpublished results of its 1995 SS mortality experience by Std and SStd issue, sex, and a combination of 8 age and 6 duration groups. Overall results on mortality expected from the 1983a Individual Annuity Table showed a mortality ratio (MR) of about 140% for Std cases and about 650% for all SStd cases. Life expectancy in a group with excess mortality may be computed by either adding the decimal excess death rate (EDR) to q' for each year of attained age to age 109 or multiplying q' by the decimal MR for each year to age 109. An example is given for men age 60 with localized prostate cancer; annual EDRs from a large published cancer study are used at duration 0-24 years, and the last EDR is assumed constant to age 109. This value of e is compared with e from constant initial values of EDR or MR after the first year. Interrelations of age, sex, e, and EDR and MR are discussed and illustrated with tabular data.
It is shown that a constant MR for life-table calculation of e consistently overestimates projected annual mortality at older attained ages and underestimates e. The EDR method, approved for reserve calculations, is also recommended for use in underwriting conversion tables.
精算师协会（SOA）此前曾两次报告过标准（Std）和次标准（SStd）结构性结算（SS）年金受领人的死亡情况，但此处描述的1995年死亡率此前尚未发表。我们详细描述了1995年的SS死亡率，并讨论了计算预期寿命（e）的方法，对比了三种不同的生命表模型。
经SOA许可，我们在四张表格中呈现了其1995年SS死亡率经验的未发表结果，按标准和次标准发行、性别以及8个年龄组和6个期限组的组合分类。1983a个人年金表预期的总体死亡率结果显示，标准案例的死亡率比（MR）约为140%，所有次标准案例的死亡率比约为650%。死亡率过高群体的预期寿命可以通过将小数形式的超额死亡率（EDR）加到达到的年龄至109岁每年的q'上，或者将达到的年龄至109岁每年的q'乘以小数形式的MR来计算。给出了60岁局部前列腺癌男性的一个例子；在0 - 24年期限内使用来自一项大型已发表癌症研究的年度EDR，并且假设最后一个EDR到109岁保持不变。将这个e值与第一年之后EDR或MR的恒定初始值计算得到的e值进行比较。讨论了年龄、性别、e以及EDR和MR之间的相互关系，并用表格数据进行了说明。
结果表明，在生命表计算e时使用恒定的MR会持续高估较高达到年龄的预计年度死亡率，并低估e。经批准用于准备金计算的EDR方法，也建议用于承保转换表。
