Gjesdal Sturla, Haug Kjell, Ringdal Peder R, Vollset Stein Emil, Maeland John Gunnar
Program for helseøkonomi og Seksjon for sosialmedisin.
Tidsskr Nor Laegeforen. 2005 Jun 30;125(13):1801-5.
In the late 1990s the incidence of new disability pensioners in Norway increased, especially among young people. This study assessed the risk and possible predictors of a transition to disability among long-term sickness absentees below 40.
The study was carried out in a county with 10 % of Norway's population. All new long-term (i.e. more than 8 weeks) sickness absentees below 40 years over a six-month period in 1994 were included and followed up until year-end 1999. Socio-demographic and medical information were used as independent variables in Cox regression analysis with disability as the outcome variable.
The five-year risk of disability was 7.9 % (95 % CI 5.8 % - 10.0 %) for men and 10.3 % (95 % CI 8.5 % - 13.1 %) for women. Among young persons on long-term sickness absence with psychiatric diagnoses the rate of disability was 24 % (95 % CI 15 - 33 %) for men and 11 % (95 % CI 6 - 16 %) for women. In musculoskeletal disorders the risk of disability was 5 % (95 % CI 3 - 7 %) for men and 11 % (95 % CI 8 - 14 %) for women. Women had higher rates of disability among all subgroups of musculoskeletal disorders. Regression analysis showed no gender effect. The following variables increased the risk of disability pension: psychiatric diagnosis (only for men), low income (both genders), increasing age (only women) and previous long-term absence (only for men).
A moderate risk of disability pension was found among young people on long-term sick leave. Special interventions targeted at men with psychiatric diagnoses and women with musculoskeletal disorders should be considered.
20世纪90年代末，挪威新领取残疾抚恤金者的发病率有所上升，尤其是在年轻人中。本研究评估了40岁以下长期病假人员转为残疾的风险及可能的预测因素。
该研究在一个占挪威人口10%的县进行。纳入了1994年六个月内所有新的40岁以下长期（即超过8周）病假人员，并随访至1999年底。社会人口统计学和医学信息作为Cox回归分析中的自变量，残疾作为结果变量。
男性五年残疾风险为7.9%（95%可信区间5.8% - 10.0%），女性为10.3%（95%可信区间8.5% - 13.1%）。在患有精神疾病诊断的长期病假年轻人中，男性残疾率为24%（95%可信区间15 - 33%），女性为11%（95%可信区间6 - 16%）。在肌肉骨骼疾病中，男性残疾风险为5%（95%可信区间3 - 7%），女性为11%（95%可信区间8 - 14%）。在所有肌肉骨骼疾病亚组中，女性的残疾率更高。回归分析显示无性别效应。以下变量会增加领取残疾抚恤金的风险：精神疾病诊断（仅男性）、低收入（男女皆有）、年龄增长（仅女性）和既往长期缺勤（仅男性）。
在长期病假的年轻人中发现了中度的残疾抚恤金风险。应考虑针对患有精神疾病诊断的男性和患有肌肉骨骼疾病的女性进行特殊干预。
