Combined physico-chemical and water transfer modelling to predict bacterial growth during food processes.

The quality and safety of food products depend on the microorganisms, the food characteristics and the process. The prediction of conditions that prevent growth in complex situations due to the characteristics of the process and of the food cannot be obtained by predictive models of bacterial growth only. Thus, a combined modelling approach was developed by integrating three models, which were selected in a first step: (1) a bacterial model that predicts the bacterial growth from the physico-chemical properties of the media; (2) a water transfer model that predicts the effects of the drying process variables on the medium characteristics; and (3) a thermodynamic model that predicts the water activity aw and the pH of the media from its composition. A second step consisted in separately validating each selected model in which all of the physical, chemical or biological parameters appearing in the equations were previously measured. The third step combined the three knowledge models. The global model was validated on the basis of experimental results concerning the growth of Listeria innocua on the surface of a gelatine gel, the surface of which was submitted to a drying process (changes in relative humidity and air velocity). It was shown that bacterial growth models had to be modified: a specific model was set up to predict the maximum growth rate and another for the lag. Additionally, growth models set up in broth could not be applied in gelatine, leading to the development of a specific growth model on a solid surface. The thermodynamic model accurately predicted the pH and aw of bacterial broth in which high concentrations of solutes were added, and those of the solid media, the gelatine. The water transfer model was applied on gelatine data to predict the evolution of its surface aw during the drying process. The three models-bacterial, water transfer and thermodynamic, separately validated-were combined according to an integrated modelling strategy. The water transfer model coupled with the thermodynamic model predicted the aw on the gel surface. The predicted surface aw explained why growth inhibition was observed. Indeed, growth stopped at a predicted surface aw <0.94, corresponding to L. innocua minimum aw during the drying process. The global model satisfactorily predicted L. innocua growth on the surface of the gel. This study proves the validity of the approach and shows that the combination of the water transfer and thermodynamic models compensates for the lack of aw measurement techniques.