Staplin Loren, Gish Kenneth W
TransAnalytics, LLC, Kulpsville, PA 19443, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2005 Nov;37(6):1035-9. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2005.06.001. Epub 2005 Jul 14.
This research analyzed the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) database to develop estimates of the increased risk of crash involvement experienced by commercial drivers who change jobs frequently. These analyses quantified the risk of single- and multiple-crash involvement as a function of annual job change rate, and expressed the relative risk for drivers with more versus fewer job changes through calculation of the "odds ratio" statistic. Significant odds ratio values were found, indicating that crash risk begins to rise when a driver has averaged more than two jobs with different employers each year for 2 years or longer, and that the odds of being involved in multiple crashes more than doubles for drivers with three or more jobs per year during this same interval. Opportunities for further research, focusing on variables that could be extracted from existing data sources to further enhance the validity and predictive value of the relationships found in this study, were also identified.
本研究分析了机动车承运人管理信息系统（MCMIS）数据库，以估算频繁更换工作的商业司机发生撞车事故风险增加的情况。这些分析将单车和多车撞车事故风险量化为年度工作更换率的函数，并通过计算“优势比”统计量来表示工作更换次数较多与较少的司机的相对风险。发现了显著的优势比值，表明当一名司机在两年或更长时间内平均每年为不同雇主工作超过两份时，撞车风险开始上升，并且在同一时间段内每年更换三份或更多工作的司机发生多起撞车事故的几率增加一倍以上。还确定了进一步研究的机会，重点关注可以从现有数据源中提取的变量，以进一步提高本研究中发现的关系的有效性和预测价值。
