Østergaard S, Friggens N C, Chagunda M G G
Department of Animal Health, Welfare and Nutrition, Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 50, Tjele DK-8830, Denmark.
Theriogenology. 2005 Sep 1;64(4):819-43. doi: 10.1016/j.theriogenology.2004.10.022.
For several years progesterone in milk or blood has been recognized as an indicator of different cow states related to reproduction. For this study, an existing simulation model was modified in order to analyze the technical and economic effects of including information on progesterone status in an automatic inline monitoring system. Implementation of an inline progesterone indicator was assumed to directly affect the estrus detection rate, the period until treatment for post-partum anestrus and the number of mistimed AIs. Different implementations of an inline progesterone indicator were simulated in a typical Danish dairy herd with 120 cows and in other herd situations represented by: a herd with poor reproduction efficiency, a herd with a high estrus detection rate and a herd using a 9 week postponed AI period for primiparous cows. It was concluded that implementation of an inline progesterone indicator in a dairy herd previously using visual estrus detection has a break-even price of 3-81 euros per cow-year depending on differences in implementation type and herd reproduction management. The highest break-even price was found using the assumptions that simulated a herd with initially poor reproductive efficiency. With the assumptions that simulated a typical Danish herd the break-even price was 46 euros per cow-year. Attributable effects of using the indicator, including effects of labor time, are discussed.
数年来，牛奶或血液中的孕酮一直被视为与奶牛繁殖相关的不同状态的指标。在本研究中，对一个现有的模拟模型进行了修改，以分析在自动在线监测系统中纳入孕酮状态信息所产生的技术和经济影响。假定实施在线孕酮指标会直接影响发情检测率、产后乏情期的治疗时间以及配种时间不当的人工授精次数。在一个拥有120头奶牛的典型丹麦奶牛场以及以繁殖效率低下的牛群、发情检测率高的牛群和初产奶牛人工授精时间推迟9周的牛群为代表的其他牛群情况下，对在线孕酮指标的不同实施方式进行了模拟。得出的结论是，在之前采用视觉发情检测的奶牛场实施在线孕酮指标，根据实施类型和牛群繁殖管理的差异，每头牛每年的盈亏平衡价格为3至81欧元。在模拟最初繁殖效率低下的牛群的假设下，发现盈亏平衡价格最高。在模拟典型丹麦牛群的假设下，盈亏平衡价格为每头牛每年46欧元。讨论了使用该指标的可归因影响，包括劳动时间的影响。
