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血液透析研究中达到的透析剂量与死亡率的关联:“剂量靶向偏倚”的一个例子。

Association of achieved dialysis dose with mortality in the hemodialysis study: an example of "dose-targeting bias".

作者信息

Greene Tom, Daugirdas John, Depner Thomas, Allon Michael, Beck Gerald, Chumlea Cameron, Delmez James, Gotch Frank, Kusek John W, Levin Nathan, Owen William, Schulman Gerald, Star Robert, Toto Robert, Eknoyan Garabed

机构信息

Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio 44195, USA.

出版信息

J Am Soc Nephrol. 2005 Nov;16(11):3371-80. doi: 10.1681/ASN.2005030321. Epub 2005 Sep 28.

Abstract

In the intention-to-treat analysis of the Hemodialysis Study, all-cause mortality did not differ significantly between the high versus standard hemodialysis dose groups. The association of mortality with delivered dose within each of the two randomized treatment groups was examined, and implications for observational studies were considered. Time-dependent Cox regression was used to relate the relative risk (RR) for mortality to the running mean of the achieved equilibrated Kt/V (eKt/V) over the preceding 4 mo. eKt/V was categorized by quintiles within each dose group. Analyses were controlled for case-mix factors and baseline anthropometric volume. Within each randomized dose group, mortality was elevated markedly when achieved eKt/V was in the lowest quintile (RR, 1.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.40 to 2.66; P < 0.0001 in the standard-dose group; RR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.50 to 2.76; P < 0.0001 in the high-dose group; RR relative to the middle quintiles). The mortality rate in the lowest eKt/V quintile of the high-dose group was higher than in the full standard-dose group (RR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.29 to 1.96; P < 0.0001). Each 0.1 eKt/V unit below the group median was associated with a 58% higher mortality in the standard-dose group (P < 0.001) and a 37% higher mortality in the high-dose group (P < 0.001). The magnitude of these dose-mortality effects was seven- to 12-fold higher than the upper limit of the 95% CI from the intention-to-treat analysis. The effects were attenuated in lagged analyses but did not disappear. When dialysis dose is targeted closely, as under the controlled conditions of the Hemodialysis Study, patients with the lowest achieved dose relative to their target dose experience markedly increased mortality, to a degree that is not compatible with a biologic effect of dose. The possibility of similar (albeit smaller) biases should be considered when analyzing observational data sets relating mortality to achieved dose of dialysis.

摘要

在血液透析研究的意向性分析中,高剂量与标准剂量血液透析组之间的全因死亡率无显著差异。研究了两个随机治疗组中每组死亡率与实际给予剂量之间的关联,并考虑了其对观察性研究的影响。采用时间依赖性Cox回归分析,将死亡率的相对风险(RR)与前4个月达到的平衡Kt/V(eKt/V)的移动平均值相关联。在每个剂量组内,eKt/V按五分位数进行分类。分析对病例组合因素和基线人体测量体积进行了控制。在每个随机剂量组中,当达到的eKt/V处于最低五分位数时,死亡率显著升高(RR,1.93;95%置信区间[CI],1.40至2.66;标准剂量组中P<0.0001;RR,2.04;95%CI,1.50至2.76;高剂量组中P<0.0001;相对于中间五分位数的RR)。高剂量组中eKt/V最低五分位数的死亡率高于整个标准剂量组(RR,1.59;95%CI,1.29至1.96;P<0.0001)。在标准剂量组中,每低于组中位数0.1个eKt/V单位,死亡率就高出58%(P<0.001),在高剂量组中高出37%(P<0.001)。这些剂量-死亡率效应的幅度比意向性分析中95%CI的上限高7至12倍。在滞后分析中,这些效应有所减弱,但并未消失。在血液透析研究的受控条件下,当严格设定透析剂量目标时,实际剂量相对于目标剂量最低的患者死亡率显著增加,其程度与剂量的生物学效应不相符。在分析将死亡率与透析实际剂量相关联的观察性数据集时,应考虑类似(尽管较小)偏差的可能性。

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