Gunn G J, Saatkamp H W, Humphry R W, Stott A W
SAC Epidemiology Research Unit, Animal Health Group, SAC Research, Kings Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK.
Prev Vet Med. 2005 Nov 15;72(1-2):149-62; discussion 215-9. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.08.012. Epub 2005 Oct 21.
The objective of this paper is to present a preliminary assessment of variation in the economic impact of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) at dairy farm level between a sample of nations within the EU and hence assess differences in pressure to respond to this disease that may be impeding progress in control and hence restricting collective benefits from healthier livestock. We used a questionnaire to obtain national average values of key epidemiological and economic parameters for a typical dairy farm from BVDV experts in the countries concerned. These parameters were converted into assessments of economic impact using a computer simulation model. Uncontrolled output losses for a BVDV-naïve herd with virus introduced in year 1 of a 10-year epidemic represented 22, 7, 8, 5, 8 and 20% of the BVDV-free annuity for the UK, Northern Portugal, Holland, Norway, Italy and Germany, respectively. Differences between countries will be widened by differences in the risk of acquiring BVDV. These will be much reduced in countries, such as Norway that have a national BVDV eradication programme. Farmers in such countries can therefore justify spending much less on maintaining BVDV-free status than BVDV-free farms in other countries. This result illustrates the paradox that in countries where BVDV prevalence is high, farmers have least to gain from unilateral BVDV eradication because of the high cost of maintaining freedom from the disease. We discuss this issue in the light of increasing recognition at international level of the importance of BVDV control.
本文的目的是对欧盟内部分国家样本中奶牛场层面牛病毒性腹泻病毒(BVDV)经济影响的差异进行初步评估,从而评估应对该疾病的压力差异,这种差异可能阻碍防控进展,进而限制从更健康的牲畜中获得的集体利益。我们通过问卷调查从相关国家的BVDV专家那里获取典型奶牛场关键流行病学和经济参数的国家平均值。使用计算机模拟模型将这些参数转化为经济影响评估。在为期10年的疫情中,第1年引入病毒的未感染BVDV牛群的无控制产出损失分别占英国、葡萄牙北部、荷兰、挪威、意大利和德国无BVDV年金的22%、7%、8%、5%、8%和20%。国家之间的差异会因感染BVDV风险的不同而扩大。在有全国性BVDV根除计划的国家,如挪威,这种差异会大大减小。因此,这些国家的农民维持无BVDV状态的支出比其他国家的无BVDV农场少得多是合理的。这一结果说明了一个悖论,即在BVDV流行率高的国家,由于维持无病状态成本高昂,农民从单方面根除BVDV中获得的收益最少。我们根据国际层面日益认识到的BVDV防控重要性来讨论这个问题。