Valle Paul S, Skjerve Eystein, Martin S Wayne, Larssen Rolf B, Østerås Olav, Nyberg Ola
GENO Breeding and A.I. Association, Post Box 4123, N-2300 Hamar, Norway.
Prev Vet Med. 2005 Nov 15;72(1-2):189-207; discussion 215-9. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.07.017. Epub 2005 Oct 6.
A retrospective cost-benefit analysis was carried out on the Norwegian bovine virus diarrhoea (BVD) control and eradication strategy, for the years 1993-2003. Information regarding the control cost input parameters was gathered from the cattle industry (TINE Norwegian Dairies, GENO Breeding and AI association, and GILDE Norwegian Meat), The National Animal Health Authorities and The Veterinary Institute. We accounted for variable costs (both direct costs associated with the control, and those costs carried by the farmers as a consequence of the control program). The benefit was estimated as the difference between the assumed losses without control - represented overall as 10% increase of the observed 1993 BVD virus infection level - and the observed losses during the control period. An estimate of the financial losses associated with the BVD virus (BVDV) infection was based on studies of the herd level effects on health, reproduction, and production in dairy herds with evidence of recent BVDV infection. We used a stochastic simulation model to account for the total uncertainty in both the control cost and financial loss estimates. The annual net benefits over the 10 years of BVD control were discounted to a 1993 net present value (NPV). The median NPV of the BVD control, nationally, was estimated at 130 million NOK with a distribution of the NPV ranging from +51 to +201 million NOK (5th and 95th percentiles, respectively). Out of the total control costs the farmers and the farmer-owned industries (the co-operatives) had carried about 62% of these costs; however, the farmers were also the main beneficiaries. The Norwegian experience shows a robust cost-efficiency for a BVDV eradication strategy; this stands in sharp contrast to earlier studies where the results were not supportive. Even though every cattle population and country is unique, the Norwegian findings and experiences should have wider implications.
对1993年至2003年挪威牛病毒性腹泻(BVD)控制与根除策略进行了回顾性成本效益分析。关于控制成本输入参数的信息收集自养牛业(挪威乳制品公司TINE、基因育种与人工授精协会GENO以及挪威肉类协会GILDE)、国家动物卫生当局和兽医研究所。我们考虑了可变成本(与控制相关的直接成本以及农民因控制计划而承担的成本)。效益估计为假设无控制情况下的损失(总体上以1993年观察到的BVD病毒感染水平增加10%表示)与控制期间观察到的损失之间的差异。与BVD病毒(BVDV)感染相关的财务损失估计基于对近期有BVDV感染证据的奶牛场健康、繁殖和生产的群体水平影响的研究。我们使用随机模拟模型来考虑控制成本和财务损失估计中的总不确定性。BVD控制10年期间的年度净效益被折现到1993年的净现值(NPV)。全国范围内BVD控制的NPV中位数估计为1.3亿挪威克朗,NPV分布范围为+5100万至+2.01亿挪威克朗(分别为第5和第95百分位数)。在总控制成本中,农民和农民所有的行业(合作社)承担了约62%的这些成本;然而,农民也是主要受益者。挪威的经验表明,BVDV根除策略具有强大的成本效益;这与早期研究结果不支持的情况形成鲜明对比。尽管每个牛群和国家都是独特的,但挪威的研究结果和经验应该具有更广泛的意义。