Church John A, White Neil J, Arblaster Julie M
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
Nature. 2005 Nov 3;438(7064):74-7. doi: 10.1038/nature04237.
Ocean thermal expansion contributes significantly to sea-level variability and rise. However, observed decadal variability in ocean heat content and sea level has not been reproduced well in climate models. Aerosols injected into the stratosphere during volcanic eruptions scatter incoming solar radiation, and cause a rapid cooling of the atmosphere and a reduction in rainfall, as well as other changes in the climate system. Here we use observations of ocean heat content and a set of climate simulations to show that large volcanic eruptions result in rapid reductions in ocean heat content and global mean sea level. For the Mt Pinatubo eruption, we estimate a reduction in ocean heat content of about 3 x 10(22) J and a global sea-level fall of about 5 mm. Over the three years following such an eruption, we estimate a decrease in evaporation of up to 0.1 mm d(-1), comparable to observed changes in mean land precipitation. The recovery of sea level following the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 explains about half of the difference between the long-term rate of sea-level rise of 1.8 mm yr(-1) (for 1950-2000), and the higher rate estimated for the more recent period where satellite altimeter data are available (1993-2000).
海洋热膨胀对海平面变化和上升有显著贡献。然而,气候模型尚未很好地再现观测到的海洋热含量和海平面的年代际变化。火山喷发期间注入平流层的气溶胶会散射入射的太阳辐射,导致大气迅速冷却、降雨减少以及气候系统的其他变化。在这里,我们利用海洋热含量观测数据和一组气候模拟结果表明,大型火山喷发会导致海洋热含量和全球平均海平面迅速下降。对于皮纳图博火山喷发,我们估计海洋热含量减少约3×10²²焦耳,全球海平面下降约5毫米。在这种喷发后的三年里,我们估计蒸发量减少高达0.1毫米/天,这与观测到的平均陆地降水量变化相当。1991年皮纳图博火山喷发后海平面的恢复解释了长期海平面上升速率1.8毫米/年(1950 - 2000年)与利用卫星高度计数据估算的近期较高速率之间差异的约一半(1993 - 2000年)。