Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
Sci Adv. 2023 Apr 14;9(15):eadd9364. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.add9364. Epub 2023 Apr 12.
Volcanic aerosol forcing can affect global climate, but its role in climate prediction remains poorly understood. We isolate the impact of volcanic eruptions on multiyear-to-decadal climate prediction skill by comparing two suites of initialized decadal hindcasts conducted with and without historical volcanic forcing. Unexpectedly, the inclusion of volcanic forcing in the prediction system significantly degrades the forecast skill of detrended multiyear-to-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. The ensemble mean hindcasts produce multiyear-to-decadal tropical Pacific SST cooling in response to large tropical volcanic eruptions through thermodynamic and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like dynamic processes. However, in observations, these eruptions coincided with tropical Pacific warming, which is well predicted by the no-volcano hindcasts and, hence, is likely related to internal climate variability. Improved model representation of volcanic response and its interaction with internal climate variability is required to advance prediction of tropical Pacific decadal variability and associated global impacts.
火山气溶胶强迫作用会影响全球气候，但它在气候预测中的作用仍未得到很好的理解。我们通过比较两套有历史火山强迫和无历史火山强迫初始化的年代际后报试验，来隔离火山爆发对多年至年代际气候预测技巧的影响。出乎意料的是，在预测系统中加入火山强迫作用显著降低了去趋势的多年至年代际海表温度（SST）在热带中东部太平洋变化的预测技巧。集合平均后报预测在大型热带火山爆发时通过热力学和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）类似的动力过程产生多年至年代际热带太平洋 SST 冷却。然而，在观测中，这些爆发与热带太平洋变暖同时发生，这在无火山爆发的后报中得到了很好的预测，因此可能与内部气候变率有关。为了提高对热带太平洋年代际变率及其与内部气候变率相互作用的预测能力，需要改进对火山响应及其与内部气候变率相互作用的模型表示。
