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拉丁美洲和加勒比地区恰加斯病干预措施的成本效益:马尔可夫模型

Cost-effectiveness of Chagas disease interventions in latin america and the Caribbean: Markov models.

作者信息

Wilson Leslie S, Strosberg Arthur M, Barrio Kimberly

机构信息

Departments of Medicine and Pharmacy, University of California, San Francisco, California 94143, USA.

出版信息

Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2005 Nov;73(5):901-10.

Abstract

Chagas disease is a parasitic disease in Latin America. Despite vector control programs that have reduced incidence by 70%, there are at least 12-14 million prevalent cases. We used a Markov model to examine strategies for control and treatment of Chagas disease that compared annual costs, life expectancies, and cost-effectiveness of three vector control and drug treatment strategies. Vector control programs alone and vector control plus drug treatment are dominant over no vector control (i.e., less costly and save more lives), and vector control plus drug is highly cost-effective compared with vector control alone. We demonstrated expected changes in deaths over time resulting from various prevention approaches. Vector control affects primarily incidence, not decreasing deaths and prevalence for 30 years, while drug treatment affects prevalence and deaths immediately. The best strategy to combat Chagas disease is combinations of vector control and a potential new drug.

摘要

恰加斯病是拉丁美洲的一种寄生虫病。尽管实施了病媒控制计划,使发病率降低了70%,但仍至少有1200万至1400万现患病例。我们使用马尔可夫模型来研究恰加斯病的控制和治疗策略,比较了三种病媒控制和药物治疗策略的年度成本、预期寿命和成本效益。仅病媒控制计划以及病媒控制加药物治疗比无病媒控制更具优势(即成本更低且挽救更多生命),与仅病媒控制相比,病媒控制加药物治疗具有很高的成本效益。我们展示了各种预防方法随时间推移导致的预期死亡变化。病媒控制主要影响发病率,在30年内不会降低死亡人数和患病率,而药物治疗会立即影响患病率和死亡人数。对抗恰加斯病的最佳策略是病媒控制与一种潜在新药的联合使用。

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