van der Sluijs J, Craye M, Funtowicz S, Kloprogge P, Ravetz J, Risbey J
Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, The Netherlands.
Water Sci Technol. 2005;52(6):133-44.
This paper discusses recent experiences with the NUSAP system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method, and especially the pedigree analysis part of it, is useful to assess not only parameter uncertainty but also to systematically reflect upon (model) assumptions and problem frames. A diagnostic diagram can be used to synthesize results of quantitative and qualitative analysis. It provides an analytic tool to prioritize uncertainties according to quantitative and qualitative insights in the limitations of available knowledge. We further show that extension of the pedigree scheme to include societal dimensions of uncertainty, such as problem framing and value-laden assumptions, further promotes reflexivity and collective learning. When used in a deliberative setting, NUSAP pedigree assessment has the potential to foster a deeper social debate and a negotiated management of complex environmental problems.
本文基于不同复杂程度的案例研究，探讨了用于多维不确定性评估的NUSAP系统的近期经验。我们表明，NUSAP方法，尤其是其谱系分析部分，不仅有助于评估参数不确定性，还能系统地反思（模型）假设和问题框架。诊断图可用于综合定量和定性分析的结果。它提供了一种分析工具，可根据对现有知识局限性的定量和定性见解对不确定性进行优先排序。我们进一步表明，将谱系方案扩展到包括不确定性的社会维度，如问题框架和充满价值的假设，可进一步促进反思性和集体学习。当在审议环境中使用时，NUSAP谱系评估有可能促进更深入的社会辩论以及对复杂环境问题的协商管理。
