Development and evaluation of models to predict the feed intake of dairy cows in early lactation.

Inaccurate prediction of dry matter intake (DMI) limits the ability of current models to anticipate the technical and economic consequences of adopting different strategies for production management on individual dairy farms. The objective of the present study was to develop an accurate, robust, and broadly applicable prediction model and to compare it with the current NRC model for dairy cows in early lactation. Among various functions, an exponential model was selected for its best fit to DMI data of dairy cows in early lactation. Daily DMI data (n = 8,547) for 3 groups of Holstein cows (at Illinois, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania) were used in this study. Cows at Illinois and New Hampshire were fed totally mixed diets for the first 70 d of lactation. At Pennsylvania, data were for the first 63 d postpartum. Data from Illinois cows were used as the developmental dataset, and the other 2 datasets were used for model evaluation and validation. Data for BW, milk yield, and milk composition were only available for Illinois and New Hampshire cows; therefore, only these 2 datasets were used for model comparisons. The exponential model, fitted to the individual cow daily DMI data, explained an average of 74% of the total variation in daily DMI for Illinois data, 49% of the variation for New Hampshire data, 67% of the variation for Pennsylvania data, and 64% of the variation overall. Based on all model selection criteria used in this study, the exponential model for prediction of weekly DMI of individual cows was superior to the current NRC equation. The exponential model explained 85% of the variation in weekly mean DMI compared with 42% for the NRC equation. Compared with the relative prediction error of 6% for the exponential model, that associated with prediction using the NRC equation was 14%. The overall mean square prediction error value for individual cows was 5-fold higher for the NRC equation than for the exponential model (10.4 vs. 2.0 kg2/d2). The consistently accurate and robust prediction of DMI by the exponential model for all data-sets suggested that it could safely be used for predicting DMI in many circumstances.