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泌乳期荷斯坦奶牛采食量预测方程的开发与评估

Development and evaluation of equations for prediction of feed intake for lactating Holstein dairy cows.

作者信息

Roseler D K, Fox D G, Chase L E, Pell A N, Stone W C

机构信息

Department of Animal Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA.

出版信息

J Dairy Sci. 1997 May;80(5):878-93. doi: 10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(97)76010-7.

Abstract

Improved prediction equations for dry matter intake (DMI) of Holstein cows that consume high energy diets were developed using regression techniques applied to a comprehensive database. The equations for predicting DMI, which were dependent on parity, accounted for the effects of milk yield, milk protein, body weight (BW), BW change, days pregnant, ambient temperature, relative humidity, and night cooling. A simplified prediction equation of DMI for farm application was developed and based on milk protein yield and BW at calving. An ambient temperature and a lag adjustment factor for early lactation were developed to improve accuracy of prediction of DMI of dairy cows in early lactation. The developed equations for DMI were evaluated against six independent data files. These equations accounted for 55 to 98% of the variation of the weekly group DMI of the independent validation data. The remainder of the variation in intake was attributed to diet, management, and undescribed animal factors. The equations developed in this study had a mean proportional bias of 5.6% and a mean square prediction error of 5.45 kg2/d. Predicted intake using the new equations was within 3 to 8% of actual intake. The new equations must be applied to situations in which Holstein dairy cows are fed highly digestible diets because dietary fill effects are not considered in these equations. The relationship of milk protein yield and DMI warrants further investigation.

摘要

利用回归技术对一个综合数据库进行分析,得出了用于预测采食高能日粮的荷斯坦奶牛干物质采食量(DMI)的改进预测方程。预测DMI的方程依赖于胎次,考虑了产奶量、乳蛋白、体重(BW)、体重变化、怀孕天数、环境温度、相对湿度以及夜间降温等因素的影响。基于产犊时的乳蛋白产量和BW,开发出了一个用于农场应用的DMI简化预测方程。开发了一个环境温度和早期泌乳滞后调整因子,以提高对奶牛早期泌乳DMI预测的准确性。针对DMI开发的方程通过六个独立数据文件进行了评估。这些方程解释了独立验证数据中每周群体DMI变异的55%至98%。采食量变异的其余部分归因于日粮、管理以及未描述的动物因素。本研究开发的方程平均比例偏差为5.6%,均方预测误差为5.45 kg²/d。使用新方程预测的采食量在实际采食量的3%至8%范围内。由于这些方程未考虑日粮填充效应,新方程必须应用于荷斯坦奶牛采食高消化率日粮的情况。乳蛋白产量与DMI之间的关系值得进一步研究。

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