Bray Freddie, Møller Bjørn
Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-based Research, Montebello, Oslo, 0310, Norway.
Nat Rev Cancer. 2006 Jan;6(1):63-74. doi: 10.1038/nrc1781.
As observations in the past do not necessarily hold into the future, predicting future cancer occurrence is fraught with uncertainty. Nevertheless, predictions can aid health planners in allocating resources and allow scientists to explore the consequence of interventions aimed at reducing the impact of cancer. Simple statistical models have been refined over the past few decades and often provide reasonable predictions when applied to recent trends. Intrinsic to their interpretation, however, is an understanding of the forces that drive time trends. We explain how and why cancer predictions are made, with examples to illustrate the concepts in practice.
由于过去的观察结果不一定适用于未来，预测未来癌症的发生充满了不确定性。然而，预测可以帮助卫生规划者分配资源，并让科学家探索旨在减少癌症影响的干预措施的后果。在过去几十年中，简单的统计模型得到了完善，并且在应用于近期趋势时通常能提供合理的预测。然而，对其进行解读的内在要求是理解驱动时间趋势的因素。我们将解释如何以及为何进行癌症预测，并举例说明这些概念在实际中的应用。
