Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The Global Differential Burden and Secular Trends From 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction up to 2030.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to analyze the global burden and temporal trends of intracerebral hemorrhage from 1990 to 2019 and to project the burden up to 2030, considering variations across regions, sexes, and age groups.

METHODS

Data were sourced from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2019 study. We assessed ASIR (age-standardized incidence rates), ASMR (age-standardized mortality rates) , and ASDR (age-standardized disability adjusted life year rate) using the BAPC (Bayesian age-period-cohort) model. Spearman's Rho correlation was used to examine the relationship between disease burden and the SDI (Socio-Demographic Index).

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the global ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of intracerebral hemorrhage decreased by 1.52%, 1.64%, and 1.64%, respectively, while absolute case numbers increased. Males consistently exhibited higher ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR than females. The projections suggest that by 2030, the incidence and absolute cases of intracerebral hemorrhage will continue to rise, while mortality rates will decline.

CONCLUSION

Despite reductions in age-standardized rates, the global burden of intracerebral hemorrhage continues to increase due to population growth and aging. Effective prevention and treatment strategies, especially in low-SDI regions, are urgently needed.