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脑出血：1990年至2019年全球差异负担及长期趋势及其至2030年的预测

Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The Global Differential Burden and Secular Trends From 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction up to 2030.

作者信息

Yang Xuesong, Liu Yanbo, Chen Shiling, Chen Danyang, Wu Xuan, Wu Yanqiong, Liu Cheng, Manyande Anne, Xiang Hongbing, Tang Zhouping

机构信息

Department of Anesthesiology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.

Department of Neurology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hebei, China.

出版信息

Int J Public Health. 2025 May 21;70:1607013. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2025.1607013. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.3389/ijph.2025.1607013
PMID:40470068
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12133604/
Abstract

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to analyze the global burden and temporal trends of intracerebral hemorrhage from 1990 to 2019 and to project the burden up to 2030, considering variations across regions, sexes, and age groups.

METHODS

Data were sourced from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2019 study. We assessed ASIR (age-standardized incidence rates), ASMR (age-standardized mortality rates) , and ASDR (age-standardized disability adjusted life year rate) using the BAPC (Bayesian age-period-cohort) model. Spearman's Rho correlation was used to examine the relationship between disease burden and the SDI (Socio-Demographic Index).

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the global ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of intracerebral hemorrhage decreased by 1.52%, 1.64%, and 1.64%, respectively, while absolute case numbers increased. Males consistently exhibited higher ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR than females. The projections suggest that by 2030, the incidence and absolute cases of intracerebral hemorrhage will continue to rise, while mortality rates will decline.

CONCLUSION

Despite reductions in age-standardized rates, the global burden of intracerebral hemorrhage continues to increase due to population growth and aging. Effective prevention and treatment strategies, especially in low-SDI regions, are urgently needed.

摘要

目的

本研究旨在分析1990年至2019年脑出血的全球负担及时间趋势，并预测到2030年的负担情况，同时考虑不同地区、性别和年龄组之间的差异。

方法

数据来源于全球疾病负担（GBD）2019研究。我们使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型评估年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率（ASDR）。采用斯皮尔曼等级相关分析疾病负担与社会人口指数（SDI）之间的关系。

结果

1990年至2019年，全球脑出血的ASIR、ASMR和ASDR分别下降了1.52%、1.64%和1.64%，而绝对病例数有所增加。男性的ASIR、ASMR和ASDR始终高于女性。预测表明，到2030年，脑出血的发病率和绝对病例数将继续上升，而死亡率将下降。

结论

尽管年龄标准化率有所下降，但由于人口增长和老龄化，全球脑出血负担仍在增加。迫切需要有效的预防和治疗策略，尤其是在低SDI地区。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/42ed30f1b0cd/ijph-70-1607013-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/85ecb9f8df63/ijph-70-1607013-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/7945302259f6/ijph-70-1607013-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/141cbf70544d/ijph-70-1607013-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/38e5223f9f75/ijph-70-1607013-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/a5d87eb4fee9/ijph-70-1607013-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/42ed30f1b0cd/ijph-70-1607013-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/85ecb9f8df63/ijph-70-1607013-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/7945302259f6/ijph-70-1607013-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/141cbf70544d/ijph-70-1607013-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/38e5223f9f75/ijph-70-1607013-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/a5d87eb4fee9/ijph-70-1607013-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0086/12133604/42ed30f1b0cd/ijph-70-1607013-g006.jpg

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