Nakonezny Paul A, Rodgers Joseph Lee, Shaw Kristen
Center for Biostatistics and Clinical Science and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, 6363 Forest Park Rd., Suite 651, Dallas, TX 75235-8828, USA.
Soc Biol. 2003 Autumn-Winter;50(3-4):188-200. doi: 10.1080/19485565.2003.9989071.
Previous research has demonstrated that U.S. no-fault divorce laws implemented between 1953 and 1987 resulted in more divorces in some states than would have occurred otherwise. In other states, divorce patterns appeared to follow prevailing trends even after implementation of no-fault divorce legislation. A more distal question is whether implementation of no-fault divorce laws had an effect on birth rates. We analyzed state-level birth data from all 50 states to assess the birth response to the enactment of no-fault divorce law in each state. Results suggested that birth rates decreased significantly two to four years following the enactment of no-fault divorce law for the group of 34 states whose divorce rates responded to no-fault divorce legislation. As predicted, among the 16 states whose divorce rates did not respond to no-fault divorce legislation, the enactment of no-fault divorce law had a small and nonsignificant positive influence on birth rates. Generally, the group of 34 states had lower post no-fault birth rates than the group of 16 states.
先前的研究表明，1953年至1987年间实施的美国无过错离婚法导致一些州的离婚率高于在其他情况下可能出现的离婚率。在其他州，即使在实施无过错离婚立法之后，离婚模式似乎仍遵循普遍趋势。一个更长远的问题是无过错离婚法的实施是否对出生率有影响。我们分析了所有50个州的州级出生数据，以评估每个州对无过错离婚法颁布的出生反应。结果表明，对于离婚率对无过错离婚立法有反应的34个州来说，无过错离婚法颁布后的两到四年内出生率显著下降。正如预测的那样，在离婚率对无过错离婚立法没有反应的16个州中，无过错离婚法的颁布对出生率有微小且不显著的积极影响。总体而言，34个州的无过错离婚后出生率低于16个州。
