Takagi Hisato, Sekino Seishiro, Kato Takayoshi, Matsuno Yukihiro, Umemoto Takuya
Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Shizuoka Medical Center, Shimizu-cho, Sunto-gun, Japan.
Lung Cancer. 2006 Feb;51(2):245-6. doi: 10.1016/j.lungcan.2005.11.004. Epub 2006 Jan 4.
Meta-analyses are subject to bias because smaller or non-significant studies are less likely to be published, and most meta-analyses do not consider the effect of publication bias on their results. To assess the true risk, we revisited a famous meta-analysis including 37 studies on lung cancer and passive smoking, and adjusted for publication bias by means of the "trim and fill" algorithm. The adjusted relative risk of lung cancer in non-smokers who lived with a smoker from the 44 studies including the 7 filled ones was 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.31, p = 0.0004), and the estimate of excess risk fell from 24 to 19%.
荟萃分析容易受到偏倚影响,因为规模较小或无显著结果的研究发表的可能性较小,而且大多数荟萃分析并未考虑发表偏倚对其结果的影响。为评估真实风险,我们重新审视了一项著名的荟萃分析,该分析纳入了37项关于肺癌与被动吸烟的研究,并通过“修剪与填充”算法对发表偏倚进行了校正。在包括7项补充研究在内的44项研究中,与吸烟者共同生活的非吸烟者患肺癌的校正相对风险为1.19(95%置信区间1.08 - 1.3),超额风险估计值从24%降至19%。