Shen Yu, Huang Xuelin
Department of Biostatistics and Applied Mathematics, MD Anderson Cancer Center, University of Texas, Houston, 77030, USA.
Biometrics. 2005 Dec;61(4):992-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2005.00363.x.
We propose a nonparametric estimation of preclinical duration distribution in cancer based on data from a randomized early detection trial. In cancer screening studies, the preclinical duration of a disease is of great interest for better understanding the natural history of the disease, and for developing optimal screening strategies. To estimate the sojourn time distribution nonparametrically, we first estimate the distribution of the age at onset of preclinical disease nonparametrically using data from the screening arm in a randomized screening trial, and the distribution for the age at onset of clinical disease from the control arm of the randomized screening trial. Finally, by using deconvolution the two estimated distributions lead to a nonparametric estimate of the distribution for the gap time between the onset of preclinical disease and the onset of clinical disease. We illustrate the methodology using data from a randomized breast cancer screening trial.
我们基于一项随机早期检测试验的数据，提出了一种用于癌症临床前病程分布的非参数估计方法。在癌症筛查研究中，疾病的临床前病程对于更好地理解疾病的自然史以及制定最佳筛查策略具有重要意义。为了非参数估计停留时间分布，我们首先使用随机筛查试验中筛查组的数据非参数估计临床前疾病发病年龄的分布，以及使用随机筛查试验对照组的数据估计临床疾病发病年龄的分布。最后，通过反卷积，这两个估计分布得出临床前疾病发病与临床疾病发病之间间隔时间分布的非参数估计。我们使用一项随机乳腺癌筛查试验的数据来说明该方法。
